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AdaptNRM > Adaptation Planning > The NRM Adaptation Checklist

Assessment

The assessment stage is an opportunity to take stock of what you have (e.g. resources, data), what you know, and what you and your communities value that will inform how you undertake or adjust your plan.

The key challenges posed by climate change suggest that assessment processes need to involve assessment of multiple futures, not just the current state of the region, and to do so by making efficient use of ever-increasing amounts of information.

A set of six questions are posed to determine whether sufficient building blocks and processes are in place:

  • GeneralDo you understand the range of future climates over time for your region?

    If you answered yes:

    A new round of Australian climate change projections utilising new generation global climate models (known as the CMIP5 archive) will be available in July 2014 at http://climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au. While the results may not be significantly different to the previous round (2007, the CMIP3 archive), new regional detail and strengthening of confidence on key messages will allow you to stay informed on likely future changes.

    If you answered no:

    The final projections will be available in July 2014 but a range of current information can be found at: http://climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au. There are also Interim Projection Statements available for each cluster. This information will help you consider the range of possible climate futures for your region.

    Have limited resources?

    Much work is already underway to develop and synthesise regionally relevant information so you should be able to directly access information on the climate variables of interest. In particular, the Regional Reports and the Climate Futures Framework to be available at www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au should give a cluster-level view of the likelihood of different future climates for each emission scenario at a range of timescales (i.e. the years 2050, 2070, etc.). Given that you may wish to consider a number of points in time and several scenarios, this can result in a very large number of climate futures to consider. You may only have the resources to consider a small number in detail. For example, you may prefer to look at the ‘worst-case’ future, the most likely future, or a small set of two or three to encompass those that are most likely and/or best or worst cases.

  • GeneralDo you consider how both your natural and social systems are likely to be impacted by the likely range

    If you answered yes

    You are now well placed to decide which of these impacts your systems can absorb as well as which ones will actually threaten values. Use this set of potential impacts to feed into the next questions.

    If you answered no

    The NSW Office of Environment & Heritage has an Integrated Regional Vulnerability Assessment – a resource-intensive approach to assessment that aims to define the most vulnerable sectors at a regional level. The website includes links to an example for SE NSW as well as a guide on how to do it:

    Ross and colleagues (2013) provide a less resource-intensive process by which they worked with a range of non-technical experts in the community, local government, NRM and others to determine how climate change would affect them and the assets they care about.

    • Ross,H., Shaw,S., Schoeman, J Chapman, S , Cliffe,N., Rissik,D., Hounsell,V., Udy,J., Trinh, N. and. (2013) Climate roundtables in South East Queensland: Short Report. Global Change Institute. University of Queensland.
    • http://www.gci.uq.edu.au/publications/climate-roundtables
    Have limited resources?

    A growing body of literature is considering the impact of climate change on both natural systems and society. However, there are many gaps and inconsistencies in knowledge, and there may not be available information for your region. You may not have the resources nor consider it resource effective to investigate these gaps. In that case, information on impacts might be drawn from other locations that are at least partly analogous to your locality or environment (including internationally); or derived from expert opinion.

  • GeneralDo you assess the capacity of your natural and social systems to absorb these impacts?

    If you answered yes:

    You are well placed to identify whether the impacts that can’t be absorbed are truly a problem from the perspective of society’s values, and develop community priorities as outlined in the next question of this guide. You can also use your understanding of adaptive capacity in your region to consider how to increase it and build resilience (see Implementation section).

    If you answered no:

    CSIRO’s Vulnerability Assessment for Australia, gives a spatially broad assessment of vulnerability and adaptive capacity that may provide a useful first broad overview for your region.

    Here is a case study of communities that have undertaken assessments of their adaptive capacity:

    To assess the adaptive capacity of species, you might like to refer to the framework for assessing vulnerability of species developed by Stephen Williams and his team:

    Have limited resources?

    While formal testing is available to survey adaptive capacity, expert knowledge and historical response may also be informative of adaptive capacity. For natural systems, the science behind adaptive capacity is still limited and expert opinion may be just as useful as complex analysis and models. A simple surrogate could be the degree of existing pressures and disturbance as these will impact on the capacity of the system to cope with further change. For social systems consider how the community has engaged with climate change discussion or climate extreme related activities and planning in the past. A highly engaged and aware community is likely to have greater capacity.

     

  • GeneralDo you work with your communities to identify what they value in the context of future climates?

    If you answered yes

    You have a good awareness of your community expectations under future climates and can engage with them effectively. You are also able to manage change in your community and ensure they remain on side with your planning approaches. You should be able to use information on climate impacts and adaptive capacity to understand which values may be most under threat (see the last question in this section for more on this).

    If you answered no

    NRM in Australia has an outstanding track record of engaging with stakeholders, but climate change and adaptation is probably a newer topic to cover. There are many ways that one can go about doing this, but here is an example of how future climate change is made relevant to a local community. It is set in Canada, and is based on the work of Stephen Sheppard.

    For more detail in a peer-reviewed journal article, see:

    Have limited resources?

    Ensuring that community consultation and engagement occurs at an early stage will ensure community buy-in and support and that your plan addresses the community’s preferred vision for the future. Thus, early investment in engaging the community is likely to pay off in terms of reduced investment later in the planning process.

  • GeneralDo you reflect on whether your broad objectives are still appropriate under future climates, and whether your existing management levers will still work under these changing futures?

    If you answered yes

    You will have categorised your objectives and management tools as those that remain appropriate and those that need revision. Ensure that existing management levers (e.g. communication and engagement plans) fit with these objectives. You are now ready to consider where you need to focus your adaptation efforts.

    If you answered no

    Michael Dunlop from CSIRO led a team that considered what types of biodiversity conservation objectives might be considered ‘climate-ready’ and developed a basic tool to guide practitioners through making these decisions themselves. The basic methodology could be modified for a range of domains, not just biodiversity.

    Have limited resources?

    As this is a quick assessment, intended only to help focus effort, use internal discussions and expert opinion to reflect on climate-appropriate objectives and management levers

  • GeneralDo you use all of the above information to decide where to focus your more detailed climate-adaptation planning effort?

    If you answered yes

    You are well prepared to undertake your plan or revise your plan to consider adaptation, using the results of this final step to efficiently direct your more detailed planning efforts towards particular domains or sub-regions. Ensure you keep stock of your resources and knowledge gaps during your planning so they can be more readily updated as new information becomes available.

    If you answered no

    Review the information and resources you have at your disposal to determine where your greatest effort is needed. Consider convening a community consultation meeting or expert panel to identify your focus areas for planning.

    The NSW Office of Environment & Heritage’s Integrated Regional Vulnerability Assessment used stakeholder workshops to produce integrated narratives that combine some of the information we suggest should be combined in this assessment phase:

    The Victorian Centre for Climate Change Adaptation Research (VCCCAR) developed a Climate Change Adaptation Navigator to help guide local governments through the process of adaptation. It includes some assessment components similar to what we have suggested here and provides a way to graphically depict your own choices about when and how you combine impact and options assessments.

    Have limited resources?

    Deciding where to focus your planning efforts requires little resource investment beyond the investment of time. Expert opinion and community consultation may also be included in this process.