In this section we provide a summary of the resources used in the Implications for Biodiversity Guide.

To find out more about definitions of key measures, technical information and the references, click on the topics below. For more information about data available on CSIRO’s Data Access Portal, click the menu on the right hand side.

 

• Definitions of key measurestoggle

  For quick reference, the key measures introduced in this Module are briefly defined below. Expanded definitions of these and other terms are provided in the Glossary in the Implications for Biodiversity Guide.

  Projected ecological similarity:

  In the context of climate change, projected ecological similarity measures how similar a single location is over two time periods in its composition. It is typically applied to a baseline (current) and future climate scenario. Ecological similarity can vary from 0 (no species in common) to 1 (all species the same).

  Potential degree of ecological change:

  The potential degree of ecological change is how much change in composition may occur. It is measured using the projected ecological similarity between different points in time, but at the same location. The lower the similarity between a baseline and future time, the greater the potential degree of ecological change.

  Novel ecological environments:

  Novel ecological environments are places where the future environment that arises is likely to have a composition that is different from any environment currently known on the continent.

  Disappearing ecological environments:

  Disappearing ecological environments are places where the composition in its current form is unlikely to exist anywhere on the continent in the future.

  Change in effective area of similar ecological environments:

  Change in effective area of similar ecological environments is a measure of the gain or loss in the total area of land with an environment similar to that of a particular location. It is thus an index of reduced or increased capacity to support the original biodiversity of a location. For example, this may occur due to climate change and/or land clearing patterns. If there is a reduction in the effective area of similar ecological environments, we expect a corresponding loss of original biodiversity, and vice versa.

• What is a technical note?toggle

  For those interested in learning more about the methods, further explanation and background information is provided in a series of Technical Notes. These are included as an appendix to the Implications for Biodiversity Guide.

  • Technical Note 1 – Biodiversity projection datasets and maps
  • Technical Note 2 – Community-level modelling using Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling
  • Technical Note 3 – Climate data used to model and project ecological similarity in this Guide
  • Technical Note 4 – Spatially estimating biodiversity model limitations

• References and further readingtoggle

  The following list of references draws upon material referred within or relevant to this Module.

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  Allnutt TF, Ferrier S, Manion G, Powell GVN, Ricketts TH, Fisher BL, Harper GJ, Irwin ME, Kremen C, Labat J-N, Lees DC, Pearce TA, Rakotondrainibe F (2008) A method for quantifying biodiversity loss and its application to a 50-year record of deforestation across Madagascar. Conservation Letters 1(4), 173-181.

  Blois JL, Williams JW, Fitzpatrick MC, Ferrier S, Veloz SD, He F, Liu Z, Manion G, Otto-Bliesner B (2013a) Modeling the climatic drivers of spatial patterns in vegetation composition since the Last Glacial Maximum. Ecography 36(4), 460-473.

  Blois JL, Williams JW, Fitzpatrick MC, Jackson ST, Ferrier S (2013b) Space can substitute for time in predicting climate-change effects on biodiversity. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10(23), 9374–9379.

  Burrows MT, Schoeman DS, Richardson AJ, Molinos JG, Hoffmann A, Buckley LB, Moore PJ, Brown CJ, Bruno JF, Duarte CM, Halpern BS, Hoegh-Guldberg O, Kappel CV, Kiessling W, O/’Connor MI, Pandolfi JM, Parmesan C, Sydeman WJ, Ferrier S, Williams KJ, Poloczanska ES (2014) Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity. Nature 507(27 March 2014), 492-495.

  Chylek P, Li J, Dubey MK, Wang M, Lesins G (2011) Observed and model simulated 20th century Arctic temperature variability: Canadian Earth System Model CanESM2. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussion 11(8), 22893-22907.

  Drielsma M, Ferrier S (2009) Rapid evaluation of metapopulation persistence in highly variegated landscapes. Biological Conservation 142(3), 529-540.

  Drielsma M, Ferrier S, Howling G, Manion G, Taylor S, Love J (2014a) The Biodiversity Forecasting Toolkit: Answering the ‘how much’, ‘what’, and ‘where’ of planning for biodiversity persistence. Ecological Modelling 274(0), 80-91.

  Drielsma M, Manion G, Love J, Williams KJ, Harwood T (2014b) ‘3C Modelling for Biodiversity Management Under Future Climate.’ (NSW Office of Environment and Heritage: Armidale). Available online at https://terranova.org.au

  Dunlop M, Hilbert DW, Ferrier S, House A, Liedloff A, Prober SM, Smyth A, Martin TG, Harwood T, Williams KJ, Fletcher C, Murphy H (2012a) ‘Implications for policy makers: climate change, biodiversity conservation and the National Reserve System.’ (CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship: Canberra) 11, available online: http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Flagships/Climate-Adaptation-Flagship/adapt-national-reserve-system.aspx

  Dunlop M, Hilbert DW, Ferrier S, House A, Liedloff A, Prober SM, Smyth A, Martin TG, Harwood T, Williams KJ, Fletcher C, Murphy H (2012b) ‘The implications of climate change for biodiversity, conservation and the National Reserve System: Final Synthesis.’ (A report prepared for the Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Canberra. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship: Canberra) 79, available online: http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Flagships/Climate-Adaptation-Flagship/adapt-national-reserve-system.aspx

  Dunlop M, Parris H, Ryan P, Kroon F (2013) ‘Climate-ready conservation objectives: a scoping study.’ (National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility: Gold Coast) 102; available online: http://www.nccarf.edu.au/publications/climate-ready-conservation-objectives-scoping-study

  Ferrier S, Drielsma M (2010) Synthesis of pattern and process in biodiversity conservation assessment: a flexible whole-landscape modelling framework. Diversity and Distributions 16(3), 386-402.

  Ferrier S, Guisan A (2006) Spatial modelling of biodiversity at the community level. Journal of Applied Ecology 43(3), 393-404.

  Ferrier S, Harwood T, Williams KJ (2012a) ‘Queensland’s biodiversity under climate change: ecological scaling of terrestrial environmental change.’ (CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper No. 12B: Canberra) 49, available online: http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Flagships/Climate-Adaptation-Flagship/CAF-working-papers/CAF-working-paper-12.aspx

  Ferrier S, Harwood T, Williams KJ (2012b) ‘Using Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling to assess potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity composition in Australia, and on the representativeness of the National Reserve System.’ (CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper No. 13E: Canberra) 62, available online: http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Flagships/Climate-Adaptation-Flagship/CAF-working-papers/CAF-working-paper-13.aspx

  Ferrier S, Powell GVN, Richardson KS, Manion G, Overton JM, Allnutt TF, Cameron SE, Mantle K, Burgess ND, Faith DP, Lamoreux JF, Kier G, Hijmans RJ, Funk VA, Cassis GA, Fisher BL, Flemons P, Lees D, Lovett JC, Rompaey V, R. RSA (2004) Mapping More of Terrestrial Biodiversity for Global Conservation Assessment. Bioscience 54(12), 1101-1109.

  Harwood T, Williams KJ, Ferrier S (2012) ‘Generation of spatially downscaled climate change predictions for Australia.’ (Generation of spatially downscaled climate change predictions for Australia. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper No. 13F: Canberra) 12, available online: http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-structure/Flagships/Climate-Adaptation-Flagship/CAF-working-papers/CAF-working-paper-13.aspx

  Hennessy K, Clarke J, Whetton P, Kent D (2012) ‘An introduction to internally consistent climate projections.’ (CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research: Aspendale, Australia) 10, available online: http://www.climatechangeinaustralia.gov.au/documents/resources/An%20introduction%20to%20internally%20consistent%20climate%20projections.pdf

  Jubb I, Canadell P, Dix M (undated) ‘Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs).’ (CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology: Melbourne) 3, available online: http://www.cawcr.gov.au/publications/otherreports/ACCSP_RCP.pdf

  Murphy H, Liedloff A, Williams RJ, Williams KJ, Dunlop M (2012) ‘Queensland’s biodiversity under climate change: terrestrial ecosystems.’ (CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working Paper No. 12C: Canberra) 110, available online: http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Flagships/Climate-Adaptation-Flagship/CAF-working-papers/CAF-working-paper-12.aspx

  Reside AE, VanDerWal J, Phillips B, Shoo L, Rosauer D, Anderson BA, Welbergen J, Moritz C, Ferrier S, Harwood TD, Williams KJ, Mackey B, Hugh S, Williams SE (2013) ‘Climate Change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity: the role of refugia ecosystem resilience and maintenance of terrestrial biodiversity in the face of global climate change.’ (National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility: Griffith University, Gold Coast, Qld) 216, available online: http://www.nccarf.edu.au/publications/climate-change-refugia-terrestrial-biodiversity

  Rissik D, Boulter S, Doerr V, Marshall N, Hobday A and Lim-Camacho L (2014) The NRM Adaptation Checklist: Supporting climate adaptation planning and decision-making for regional NRM. (CSIRO and NCCARF, Australia.) ISBN 78-1-4863-0319-9. Available online: www.AdaptNRM.org

  Rosauer DF, Ferrier S, Williams KJ, Manion G, Keogh JS, Laffan SW (2014) Phylogenetic generalised dissimilarity modelling: a new approach to analysing and predicting spatial turnover in the phylogenetic composition of communities. Ecography 37(1), 21-32.

  Scott, J.K., Webber, B.L., Murphy, H., Ota, N., Kriticos, D.J. and Loechel, B. (2014) AdaptNRM Weeds and climate change: supporting weed management adaptation. (CSIRO, Australia.) ISBN 978-1-4863-0401-1. Available at: www.AdaptNRM.org

  Sinha P, Kumar L, Drielsma M, Barrett T (2014) Time-series effective habitat area (EHA) modelling using cost-benefit raster based technique. Ecological Informatics 19(0), 16-25.

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  Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 93(4), 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1

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  Whitford KR, White PS, McCaw L, Durell G, Whitford E (2008) ‘Deaths of jarrah in 2008 at Jilakin Rock: an outlying population of jarrah: a report of initial observations.’ (Western Australian Department of Environment and Conservation: Kensington, WA, Australia) 22

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  Williams JW, Jackson ST (2007) Novel climates, no-analog communities, and ecological surprises. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 5, 475-482.

  Williams JW, Jackson ST, Kutzbacht JE (2007) Projected distributions of novel and disappearing climates by 2100 AD. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 104(14), 5738-5742.

  Williams KJ, Belbin L, Austin MP, Stein J, Ferrier S (2012a) Which environmental variables should I use in my biodiversity model? International Journal of Geographic Information Sciences 26(11), 2009-2047.

  Williams KJ, Dunlop M, Bustamante RH, Murphy HT, Ferrier S, Wise RM, Liedloff A, Skewes T, Hardwood TD, Kroon F, Williams RJ, Joehnk K, Crimp S, Stafford Smith M, James C, Booth T (2012b) ‘Queensland’s biodiversity under climate change: impacts and adaptation – synthesis report.’ (A Report Prepared for the Queensland Government, Brisbane. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship: Canberra) 105, available online: http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Flagships/Climate-Adaptation-Flagship/Queensland-biodiversity-under-climate-change.aspx

  Woinarski JCZ, Armstrong M, Brennan K, Fisher A, Griffiths AD, Hill B, Milne DJ, Palmer C, Ward S, Watson M, Winderlich S, Young S (2010) Monitoring indicates rapid and severe decline of native small mammals in Kakadu National Park, northern Australia. Wildlife Research 37(2), 116-126.