MAINTAIN LARGE POPULATIONS

Maintain or restore large population sizes, because larger populations generally have more capacity (genetic and otherwise) to respond to environmental change. Population sizes could be increased by allowing regeneration around small remnants, or increasing connectivity so multiple sub-populations function collectively like one larger population.

• Use revegetation benefit to also target areas that will minimise species loss nationally
• Use fine-scale connectivity and/or metapopulation capacity models.

PROMOTE SPECIES-LEVEL GENETIC DIVERSITY IN PLANTINGS

For revegetation, promote adaptive diversity by using seed sourced more widely across the species’ climatic range, with emphasis in the direction of projected climates (‘climate-adjusted provenancing’). This option needs to be weighed against the usually small risk of outbreeding depression, and disruption of local adaptation to non-climatic factors.

• Use projected distribution of vegetation types to identify the ecological direction driven by projected climates.
• Simulate trajectories of provenance shifts
  to inform climate ready restoration practice.

MANAGE AND RESTORE CONNECTIVITY TO SUPPORT MIGRATION AND RANGE SHIFTS

In addition to maintaining large populations, connectivity will need to be increased or maintained to promote other movement-based ecological processes like migration and range shifts. This may involve using established approaches (e.g. restoring woody connectivity) or more novel options (e.g. enhancing connectivity of water sources or grassland environments).

• Use models of connectivity between
  similar ecological environments over time to support range shifts.

MINIMISE HUMAN-INDUCED NON-CLIMATIC STRESSORS

Optimise ecosystem and landscape functioning in relation to interactions with humaninduced (non-climatic) pressures, to maximise persistence of local or regional biodiversity. Options include restoring compromised soil-water relations, reducing ongoing pressure from livestock or feral grazing, managing alien diseases, plants and animals, reversing effects of fragmentation habitat loss through revegetation, and managing soil nutrient levels.

• Use change in area of similar ecological
  environments with clearing to prioritise
  areas with high interaction between climate and non-climate stressors.

MONITOR AND ACCEPT CHANGE

If natural ecosystems are adapting adequately to maintain ecosystem processes and diverse native communities, intervention may not be desirable. A key action could involve building capacity among stakeholders and the broader community for understanding and accepting some degree of change in biodiversity.

• Use disappearing and novel ecological
  environments and projected distribution of vegetation types to engage with stakeholders about the need to expect change.

IDENTIFY AND MANAGE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES

This could be done within an adaptation pathways framework, incorporating decision points, such as loss of key ecosystem services, to trigger management responses (See Monaro Tablelands Planning Example). Management responses could include replacing the service using alternative species, managing intensively for a key process (see below, ‘Intensive Options’), or managing transitions towards lower reliance on these services.

• Use projected distribution of vegetation types to identify areas vegetation types may change.
• Use potential degree of ecological change and disappearing and novel ecological environments to identify areas with
  high pressure to change.

MANAGE NATIONALLY ALIEN SPECIES

Prioritise managing potential transformer or displacer aliens suited to projected future climates, and manage at site to regional scales, to allow native species and associated processes to dominate in the assembly of new ecological communities.

• Use projected distribution of vegetation types; and novel ecological environments to identify places where new communities are particularly likely to assemble.
• Use Weeds and Climate Change to guide managing transformer species.

CONTINUE TO INCLUDE ‘LOCAL SPECIES’ IN PLANTINGS, AS SOME MIGHT SURVIVE

At ecological similarities of >0, some species are projected to persist. Others will have wider tolerances than indicated by the current environments they live in. Don’t give up on local or regional native species prematurely.

• Use potential degree of ecological change and projected distribution of vegetation types to identify areas with lower levels of change where local species may persist.

INTRODUCE NON-LOCAL NATIVE SPECIES USING THE PROXIMITY PRINCIPLE

Introducing non-local species risks displacing local species, but may be needed to maintain valued ecosystem services (e.g. Monaro Tablelands Planning Example), or ensure plantings are viable. Sourcing species from as close by as feasible within expected climatic limitations will help maintain regional character. This is similar to assisted dispersal (see below, ‘Intensive Options’) but focuses on conserving processes instead of species. We include this option in both ‘No Regrets’ and ‘Intensive Options’ tables because it may be lower or greater risk depending on context.

• Use potential degree of ecological change and projected distribution of vegetation types to identify areas with high projected change where non-local species are more likely to be needed.

IDENTIFY, MANAGE AND PROTECT REFUGIA

Prioritise biodiversity conservation and management in places where existing native species are most likely to persist and/or retreat to under future climates. These could be identified nationally and regionally.

• Use refugial potential to identify regional refugia.
• Use projected distribution of vegetation types or potential degree of ecological change to identify where little change is expected.

PROMOTE RESILIENCE THROUGH DIVERSITY

Manage for diversity in natural ecosystems (e.g., by maintaining appropriate disturbance regimes) and incorporate a high diversity of locally or regionally native species into revegetation. This will increase the probability that enough species will persist to maintain ecosystem functions.

• Use potential degree of ecological change to identify areas with greater projected change.

USE COMPREHENSIVE, ADEQUATE AND REPRESENTATIVE (CAR) PRINCIPLES TO PROTECT THE FULL RANGE OF CHARACTERISTIC AUSTRALIAN ENVIRONMENTS

Identify areas that represent critical gaps in the National Reserve System as potential priorities for management and/or revegetation. This will help ensure the maximum diversity and optimal extents of environments are available in the future to accommodate today’s biota.

• Use analyses of biodiversity representativeness over time.
• Use revegetation benefit to target areas that will minimise species loss nationally based on trying to maintain the full range of current environments as much as possible.

FAVOUR LAND USE CHANGES WITH POSITIVE  RATHER THAN NEGATIVE BIODIVERSITY OUTCOMES

This is likely to favour low-input agricultural systems (e.g., carbon plantings, native pastures or sandalwood plantations) rather than intensive agriculture, to maintain options for native biota and associated ecosystem services.

• Use change in area of similar ecological environments with clearing to identify areas where land use change may make the most difference for biodiversity.